Wellness MetricsTrends
Cycle-to-cycle comparison for the core CCHS perceived mental health table.
A single Canada-wide multi-year trend line is not well supported. These points are two-year CCHS cycles, and 2019–2024 includes COVID collection changes.
Selected indicator by CCHS cycle
Model trend signal
Expected trend direction
Perceived mental health, very good or excellent · Alberta · Both sexes · Total, 18 years and over
Current value
52.4%
2023
Model trend
Down
estimated, next cycle
Model probability
90%
for “Down”
Confidence interval
—
on the current value
No future survey cycle is available for this series yet. This is the model's estimated direction for the next cycle, not an observed value.
About this model
The Trend Direction Model analyzes historical StatCan/CIHI observations and estimates whether the next reported percentage in a comparable series is more likely to move up or down. It is an analytical signal based on historical patterns, not a clinical prediction and not evidence of a statistically significant change.
- Model
- HistGradientBoostingClassifier
- Test accuracy
- 75.8%
- Test macro-F1
- 0.745
- Target
- Up / Down
This model predicts the direction of the reported point estimate, not statistical significance. Confidence intervals on these estimates are often 7-11 percentage points wide, so a small predicted move may fall well within normal sampling variation. “Up” is not the same as “worse” - it depends on what the indicator measures.
Full methodology on About the Data.
Top observed movements, latest completed cycle
Ranked by absolute percentage-point change between two real, observed survey cycles. These are historical, factual changes. “Model signal” is what the Trend Direction Model would have predicted from the earlier cycle alone, shown for comparison against what actually happened - not a forecast of the future.
| Indicator | Geography | Previous cycle | Latest cycle | Change | Direction | CI width | Model signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceived mental health, very good or excellent | Ontario | 65.1% (2012) | 28.6% (2022) | -36.5pp | ↓ Down | 11.3pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Perceived need for mental health care, no need | Alberta | 75.7% (2012) | 43.8% (2022) | -31.9pp | ↓ Down | 14.5pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Perceived mental health, very good or excellent | Canada | 64.8% (2012) | 35.3% (2022) | -29.5pp | ↓ Down | 6.0pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Perceived mental health, very good or excellent | Ontario | 67.6% (2012) | 38.5% (2022) | -29.1pp | ↓ Down | 8.1pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Perceived need for mental health care, no need | Prairie Provinces | 76.7% (2012) | 47.6% (2022) | -29.1pp | ↓ Down | 10.0pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Self-rated work stress, days not at all or not very stressful | Ontario | 57.0% (2012) | 28.2% (2022) | -28.8pp | ↓ Down | 27.2pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Perceived mental health, very good or excellent | Quebec | 70.6% (2012) | 42.0% (2022) | -28.6pp | ↓ Down | 12.5pp | ↓ Down(matched) |
| Consultation with a health professional about emotional or mental health | Prince Edward Island | 22.2% (2015) | 50.6% (2019) | +28.4pp | ↑ Up | 17.8pp | ↑ Up(matched) |
| Cannabis use, 12 months | Atlantic Provinces | 17.8% (2012) | 46.1% (2022) | +28.3pp | ↑ Up | 4.8pp | ↑ Up(matched) |
| Perceived mental health, very good or excellent | Prairie Provinces | 64.6% (2012) | 36.8% (2022) | -27.8pp | ↓ Down | 11.7pp | ↓ Down(matched) |